Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
